Growth stocks have paid the biggest price amid the 2022 bear market. In actuality, many of these names topped out in early 2021, with the bear market wearing on for more than 18 months now. That has investors wondering if any of these hot growth stocks can bounce back.
I think they can, but it’s just hard to find their pulses right now.
These names have been buried over the last eight to 18 months, with most of the pain coming in the first half of 2022. Notably, this group did not make new lows in June after bottoming in May. That’s not something that any of the major U.S. stock indices can claim and could bode well for growth stocks going forward.
Notably, most previously hot growth stocks topped out in January or February of 2021. But the higher quality names stayed strong before declining in the fourth quarter
Here are three one-time hot growth stocks that are well-positioned to become winners once again.
|The Trade Desk
The Trade Desk (TTD)
The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) is an incredibly well-run ad company. Its peak-to-trough decline of 65%, is actually not bad compared to the 80%-plus tumbles most of the hot growth stocks have undergone.
The relative resilience of TTD stock shows the strength of The Trade Desk’s business and the strong demand for its offerings from investors, even at a time when growth stocks aren’t performing well. Of course, it helps tremendously that we’re talking about a profitable company.
The Trade Desk may have a rich valuation, but too many investors look at its price-to-sales ratio instead of focusing on its bottom line.
The company’s one big problem is advertising.
While The Trade Desk is fortunate because it can operate in China (something most of its ad-reliant tech peers cannot do) and has a great leadership team, the digital ad industry is under pressure. And as the online ad sector struggles, TTD is sure to be impacted by that trend.
The question becomes, have investors already priced the space’s woes into TTD stock? Regardless of the answer, I believe that The Trade Desk can eclipse its prior high from November 2021, hit new highs and climb to roughly $117, representing a triple from its lows.
Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) is a controversial name. The stock has fallen over 80% from its all-time high, and the firm has not reported good news in recent weeks. It acknowledged that it misjudged the environment and hired too many employees.
Shopify also reported disappointing quarterly results in late July, missing analysts’ average earnings and revenue estimates. The company reported a small, surprise loss, too.
Despite all the negativity towards SHOP stock, the shares have actually rallied since those events. As glum as it may sound, a tripling of its stock price is not that far-fetched after its shares suffered a peak-to-trough decline of more than 80%.
To put the matter in perspective, if Shopify triples off its lows, it will have only regained about 40% of the decline from its highs.
It will take time for companies like Shopify to recover. The firm has been dealt a painful blow that may not be over. If the global economy continues to languish, the shares may continue to struggle.
Like The Trade Desk, Shopify is profitable — although Shopify’s margins are not nearly as high. Analysts expect Shopify to slowly but surely grow its bottom line, but they anticipate that its top line will increase quickly.
Analysts’ average estimates call for about 20% sales growth in 2022, then 24% growth in 2023, a 28% gain in 2024 and almost 30% growth in 2025. That would be four straight years of accelerating revenue growth, a scenario that would almost surely lead to a higher stock price.
I was tempted to put other stocks in this slot, but PayPal (NASDAQ:PYPL) is jumping out to me, as its business may have bottomed. Notably, its stock price may still fall further, but the firm has positive attributes.
PayPal recently reported its quarterly earnings, beating analysts’ average top- and bottom-line estimates. Even better, the company finally issued a decent outlook, as its management provided stronger-than-expected earnings guidance for the third quarter and slightly raised its full-year earnings estimate.
The shares rallied 9.25% in response to the company’s results, despite Shopify’s lackluster sales guidance. As a result, I think we have seen the trough of its business.
An activist investor —Elliott Management — has also become inv0lved with PayPal, and the company announced a $15 billion share buyback plan. That is no small sum when we’re talking about a firm with a $110 billion market capitalization.
Lastly, analysts, on average, expect double-digit-percentage revenue growth from 2022 to 2025, and their mean outlook calls for steady profit growth after this year. After a decline of over 75%, a rally to $206 — which would involve the name regaining just over half of its peak-to-trough losses — would give PayPal stock a triple from its 2022 low.
On the date of publication, Bret Kenwell held a long position in PYPL. The opinions expressed in this article are those of the writer, subject to the InvestorPlace.com Publishing Guidelines.